In an effort to reverse its Thanksgiving box office slump, Disney (DIS) is pinning its hopes on the debut of its animated feature “Wish.” The media giant, reeling from the underperformance of its latest Marvel film, is banking on the family-friendly appeal of “Wish” to revive its fortunes.
“Wish” is set to hit theaters on Wednesday, with early reviews offering a lukewarm reception, garnering a mere 49% on Rotten Tomatoes. Despite the tepid critical response, Box Office Pro chief analyst Shawn Robbins believes the film may be “critic proof” to some extent, given its potential appeal to families and children.
Robbins speculates a debut in the range of $40 million to $50 million over the five-day Thanksgiving period, a win that would be welcomed by Disney CEO Bob Iger. Iger has been vocal about the need to strengthen the creative output of the company’s film studio, emphasizing a shift toward quality over quantity. In a recent earnings call, Iger outlined a strategy focusing on core brands and franchises, reducing overall output to improve quality while fostering the creation of fresh and compelling original intellectual property.
However, industry insiders, including Doug Creutz, an analyst at TD Cowen, express skepticism about Disney’s immediate prospects. Creutz suggests that the studio may not be a growth engine for Disney in the next 18 months, and while it may not deteriorate further, improvement seems unlikely.
One major challenge for Disney is the heightened competition in the animation space. Competitors such as NBCUniversal (CMCSA) and Sony (SONY) have introduced successful titles this year, including the blockbuster “Super Mario Bros. Movie” and “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.” Disney, historically a leader in animation, has struggled to measure up in recent years.
The underperformance of previous animated releases, such as Pixar’s “Lightyear” and “Strange World,” has added to Disney’s woes. “Strange World,” which starred Jake Gyllenhaal and Dennis Quaid, incurred a reported $200 million loss after a disappointing debut during last year’s Thanksgiving period.
Industry watchers attribute these failures to poor marketing plans and audience confusion over whether certain titles were theatrical exclusives or streaming-only releases on Disney’s platform, Disney+. TD Cowen’s Creutz also points out a decreased demand for animation post-pandemic, driven by an excess of kids’ content on streaming platforms.
The Thanksgiving box office slump, however, is not unique to Disney, as the industry as a whole has witnessed a decline since 2019. Pre-pandemic, the box office consistently surpassed $250 million in domestic ticket sales each year, according to Comscore data. In contrast, the post-pandemic period has struggled to reach the $150 million mark.
Analysts suggest that the debut of “Wish” and Apple’s “Napoleon” (AAPL) could contribute to a boost in this year’s results, though it remains uncertain if the box office will reach the pre-pandemic levels in the near future.
Shawn Robbins remains cautiously optimistic, noting that the end of Hollywood strikes and improved content pipelines post-COVID may help revive attendance. Despite the challenges posed by the Thanksgiving box office slump, Robbins believes in the potential to rejuvenate it, citing its historical significance in the film industry.
Source: Yahoo Finance
