Covid is seeing a resurgence as the world approaches its fourth virus season since the onset of the pandemic. The newly identified BA.2.86 variant, dubbed “Pirola,” is a highly mutable offshoot of the Omicron strain. However recent data from both Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech suggests that a newly emerged, highly mutated variant of the Covid virus may not be as concerning as initially anticipated when it was initially identified several weeks ago. The recent upswing in Covid cases and hospitalizations is primarily linked to the XBB subvariants, specifically EG.5 and FL.1.5.1. Scientists report an upward trend in daily positive test results and the percentage of positive tests since the start of July.
Resurgence of Covid
The resurgence of Covid has been marked by a significant uptick in cases and hospitalizations. This is reversing the progress made in earlier stages of the pandemic. The resurgence of Covid is attributed to various factors, including the emergence of new variants and a combination of waning immunity and relaxed preventive measures. It underscores the continued need for vigilance and vaccination. Furthermore, adherence to public health guidelines is needed to curb the spread of the virus and protect public health.
Resurgence of Covid – Alarming Statistics and Trends
According to Worldometer data, there were 9,389 new Covid cases on September 8th. 12,075 new cases were reported on September 7th along with 35 additional reported deaths in the US. The World Health Organization’s Weekly Epidemiological Update on Covid reveals that in the last 28-day period (July 31st to August 27th, 2023), over 1.4 million new cases and over 1800 deaths were reported globally, indicating a 38% increase in cases and a 50% decrease in deaths compared to the preceding 28 days. Maryland and Florida witnessed a significant rise, with 3.4% of total deaths attributed to Covid in the week ending August 19th, doubling the national percentage.
Recent data from the CDC shows that from August 19th to August 26th, there were 17,418 Covid-related hospitalizations. Nationwide, Covid hospitalizations increased by almost 19% in a single week, and deaths rose by over 21% in August. From August 13th to August 19th, there were over 15,000 hospitalizations and 636 deaths in the US. Emergency room visits with a Covid diagnosis have been steadily rising since early July. There were 2.3% reported in the week ending August 19th, up from 0.5% at the start of July. Since the US surpassed 1 million cumulative Covid-related deaths in spring 2022, over 138,000 additional deaths have been recorded, according to provisional CDC data. Infection rates have also surged in states like New York, Florida, California, and Massachusetts. The CDC anticipates a further rise in cases this fall.
Uncertainty Looms Over Holiday Season Lockdown
The question of whether there will be a lockdown during the holiday season remains unanswered. CDC Director Mandy Cohen notes that in the latter weeks of August, up to 10,000 people per week were hospitalized with Covid. This is significantly fewer than the 40,000 weekly hospitalizations observed at the peak in August of the previous year. Unvaccinated individuals, especially those who have not previously contracted the virus, and older individuals or those with underlying health conditions face higher risks. Approximately 70% of hospitalizations occur among those aged 65 and older. The EG.5 or “eris” strain is the predominant Covid variant in the US at present. It is responsible for over 20% of recent infections according to CDC data.
The Ominous BA.2.86 Variant
In mid-August, the CDC identified a new variant, BA.2.86 (Pirola), with notable genetic differences from previous versions of SARS-CoV-2. As of August 30th, this variant is responsible for less than 1% of current Covid cases in the USA. There are 35 mutations on the spike protein compared to current circulating variants. It is a magnitude similar to the difference between the original virus and the Omicron variant. These spike protein mutations may potentially enable the virus to evade the protection conferred by Covid vaccinations and prior infections, according to epidemiologist Katelyn Jetelina, a scientific consultant to the CDC.
The CDC and WHO are closely monitoring BA.2.86. Currently, BA.2.86 remains rare in the US. As of August 30th, the CDC has detected this variant in four states: Michigan, New York, Ohio, and Virginia. The recent surge in cases and hospitalizations is attributed more to the XBB subvariants, including EG.5 (accounting for 21.5% of new cases for the week ending September 2nd) and FL.1.5.1 (14.5% of new cases).
Promising Developments in Vaccines
Scientists are assessing the effectiveness of the upcoming updated Covid booster against this variant, expected to be approved by mid-September. The CDC anticipates its availability in a few weeks. It projects it to be effective in reducing severe disease and hospitalization from BA.2.86. Moderna and Pfizer are actively developing updated Covid vaccines targeted towards the XBB strains, subvariants of the Omicron variant. Pfizer anticipates approval for its new shot in November, with availability expected in late September or early October. Moderna’s latest clinical trials show promising results. Their updated Covid-19 vaccine is effective against the highly-mutated BA.2.86 subvariant. It demonstrated an impressive 8.7-fold increase in neutralizing antibodies in human subjects against BA.2.86. While awaiting FDA approval, the vaccine is expected to be available to the public later this month or in early October.
Former White House Covid response coordinator Ashish Jha said on social media that the “news is better than I was expecting,” adding that it “makes me more encouraged that the new upcoming vaccine will have a real benefit against current dominant variant (EG.5) as well as BA.2.86.”
Protective Measures Amidst Resurgence of Covid
Some schools have reinstated mask mandates and limited public gatherings due to positive cases among students. Various hospital systems in New York state have also reinstated mask mandates. The recommended protective measures against Covid, including masking, staying home when unwell, testing after exposure or symptoms, and staying up-to-date with vaccines, remain unchanged. Carrying a mask for use in risky situations, such as public transit or airports, is advised. The CDC also emphasizes the importance of improving indoor ventilation through measures like opening windows, using fans, and employing air filters to reduce infection risk.
Experts emphasize that the summer surge should serve as a wake-up call to take the virus seriously before winter arrives. They advise that individuals over 65 or with weakened immune systems, without recent Covid immunity, should not delay in getting an updated Covid shot. The current bivalent booster offers ample protection. However, those who receive this booster will need to wait weeks or even months before getting the updated version expected to be released in the fall.
