(Washington DC) Based on Wednesday’s rainfall, it appears that Pakistan is headed towards yet another year of severe and destructive floods. Considering the limited progress of rehabilitation over the past year, the damage is expected to exceed last year’s devastations. The interlinkage between Pakistan floods and climate change is undeniable. It is crucial to recognize that the floods in Pakistan are not merely a regional issue. Unless global efforts are made, the consequences are likely to surpass the severity of the previous year’s events.
Story updated on Septmeber 3 as 2023 monsoon season continues in Pakistan
Update on Losses in Pakistan
According to data unveiled in the Situation Report by the NDMA released on September 3, 2023, a somber update has emerged concerning the monsoon rains and flooding that initially swept through on June 25, 2023. The report indicates that a total of 215 lives have been tragically lost, accompanied by an additional 320 individuals documented as injured. Furthermore, the toll on livestock is estimated at a devastating 1,260. However, local residents in the impacted areas maintain that the actual losses surpass the officially recorded figures. Authorities in the province of Punjab have established 249 medical camps and 330 relief camps. These facilities have provided essential care to 64,098 individuals requiring medical attention. Furthermore, more than 500,000 people have been evacuated from flood-prone areas in Punjab, while 300,000 animals have been relocated to safer regions since the floodwaters began inundating the region on June 25th.
Monsoon Rain Alert Issued for Next 72 Hours
In an official statement issued today, the Meteorological Office has announced the commencement of the upcoming monsoon rains, slated to begin on Sunday, September 3, and extend through September 6. As outlined by the PDMA, the impending weather system is poised to bring heavy rainfall primarily to the upper regions surrounding major rivers. In response to this situation, directives have been issued to all relevant organizations, including the Water and Sanitation Agency (Wasa), to make necessary preparations for drainage in order to prevent any additional instances of rural flooding. Notably, the northern parts of the country have already encountered belated monsoon showers, while the lower Sutlej area contends with a low flood situation.
Sutlej Flooding Updates
According to the most recent reports from the NDMA, the water levels in the Sutlej River are currently within the normal range at Ganda Singhwala and Sulaimanki. However, there has been a decrease in the low-level flooding at Islam. The deluge in the Sutlej River first began on August 17, triggered by the release of floodwater from India, compounded by heavy rainfall in the region. Consequently, levees were breached, resulting in the inundation and displacement of numerous villages at multiple locations. Official reports indicate that approximately 153,231 acres of farmland, with standing crops, have been submerged by the floodwaters. This forced the evacuation of a staggering 162,257 individuals from their homes in Bahawalnagar only.
Story updated on August 25 as 2023 monsoon season continues in Pakistan
Update on Losses in Pakistan
Emergency services have reported that over 175 individuals have lost their lives in Pakistan due to rain-related events since the onset of the monsoon season at the end of June. The primary causes of these fatalities include electrocutions and the collapse of buildings.
Meanwhile the United Nations children’s agency has warned that a year on from Pakistan’s devastating floods, an estimated 4 million children continue to need humanitarian assistance and access to essential services.
Flood Alert Issued for next 48 hours
Based on information furnished by the Pakistan Meteorological Department, the NDMA has issued a flood alert. The districts of Kasur, Okara, Bahawalnagar, Pakpattan, Vihari, Bahawalpur, and Lodhran have been designated as susceptible regions. Currently, the water level in the Sutlej River has escalated to a medium flood stage. Anticipating ongoing rainfall until August 27th, local authorities have been notified and placed on high alert.
NDMA has released a rainfall impact map for the period of August 24-31. As per the advisory provided by the NDMA, it states, “The Punjab Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) is required to ensure prompt early warnings and the evacuation of individuals at risk within the populations of GSwala, Sulaimanki, and Islam lowlands along the Sutlej River. Additionally, the PDMA should also ensure the delivery of medical assistance and essential relief supplies to displaced individuals housed in the designated camps.”
Sutlej Flooding in Vehari District – Recent Updates
The Sutlej River’s relentless surge has triggered widespread havoc in Vehari district. On Thursday, the calamitous flooding led to the collapse of multiple houses, rendering thousands homeless. Evacuations were hastily undertaken as residents were forced to abandon their villages due to the deluge, compounded by the disruption of land routes and communication networks. The water’s rapid advance is now menacing urban areas, intensifying concerns. While grappling with the crisis, the district administration is orchestrating complex rescue operations. Their efforts include establishing tent villages and flood relief camps, aiming to provide essential facilities to those affected.
The catastrophe’s scale is staggering. More than 150 villages have been inundated, and vast expanses of standing crops have been lost as a protective bund gave way. Additional breaches occurred at Mauza Bhattian and Qadir Bux bunds, amplifying the devastation. However, not all impacted areas have received aid, leaving numerous residents exposed to the elements without assistance. The Vehari district administration has set up temporary shelters at three locations, accommodating over 4,000 flood victims so far.
Sutlej Flooding in Bahawalnagar District – Recent Updates
In a parallel crisis in Bahawalnagar district, high-level flooding at Head Sulaimanki has severed connections to more than 80 villages. Temporary bunds and roads have crumbled under the force of the deluge, further isolating communities. According to the PDMA spokesperson, a total of 583 villages have fallen victim to the Sutlej River’s fury. The PDMA has marshaled a substantial response, deploying 966 rescue personnel and establishing 92 medical camps across the affected districts. The spokesperson further reported the successful rescue of 56,560 individuals stranded by floodwaters, along with the distribution of cooked meals to 58,757 people. Moreover, 18,371 victims have been evacuated to secure locations, mitigating immediate risks.
The PDMA spokesperson warned of ongoing challenges, with the monsoon system projected to persist until August 27. Upper areas along major rivers are anticipated to receive additional rainfall, heightening the water levels. The Sutlej River, in particular, is poised to rise due to anticipated downpours.
Mass Evacuation as of August 20th – Sutlej River Floods Pakistan’s Punjab Province
An extraordinary water surge not witnessed in 35 years has prompted the evacuation of thousands of residents from the river’s vicinity to safer elevated areas. Hundreds of villages spanning across thousands of acres of land found themselves submerged as the Sutlej River surged beyond its banks on Sunday, August 20th. The Punjab province of Pakistan witnessed a scene of families wading through rising waters and cattle being ferried aboard boats during a large-scale evacuation that affected approximately 100,000 individuals.
The province’s landscape underwent a transformation as countless villages succumbed to the overflowing Sutlej River, leading to an urgent response by rescue teams. Over the course of the past few days, rescue boats navigated through inundated settlements, gathering stranded residents who sought refuge on the rooftops of their homes as the water levels steadily climbed.
Mohsin Naqvi, the acting chief minister of Punjab, shed light on the situation, attributing the deluge to the intensifying monsoon rains. These rains compelled Indian authorities to discharge surplus reservoir water into the Sutlej, inevitably resulting in downstream flooding within the Pakistani territory. Meanwhile, neighboring India has been grappling with its own monsoon-related challenges, marked by a series of heavy rainfall episodes. The toll stands at a grim count of more than 150 lives lost in rain-associated incidents since the advent of July.
Story updated on july 29 as 2023 monsoon season continues in Pakistan
Updated Casualties and Damages:
As of July 29, the total number of fatalities from rain-related incidents in the country since the beginning of the monsoon season on June 25 has reached 173. The Daily Situation Report indicated that among the deceased, there were 72 children and 32 women. Additionally, more than 260 people have been reported injured during this period. The report further reveals that the recent spells of heavy rain have caused significant damage to property, with 258 houses completely destroyed and 1,227 others partially damaged. Additionally, there has been a loss of up to 475 livestock. In response to the situation, the NDMA has instructed relevant government departments to provide advance information about rains and floods to mitigate potential risks. The advisory notification stated, “Keep machinery ready to cope with emergency situations. make arrangements for the relocation of residents in low-lying areas.”
Flood Alert Issued for next 48 hours
According to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Pakistan is expected to face increased monsoon rains over the next 48 hours. During a briefing the PMD DG informed that heavy rains are anticipated in the upper regions of the country from July 31 to Aug 6. This could result in urban flooding in major cities, flash floods, and landslides in hilly areas. The authorities also expressed concern over the water levels in major reservoirs, such as Tarbela and Mangla, which are currently at 79% and 74% capacity. Additionally, Indian dams, namely Pong and Thein, are almost full. The Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) has also issued a warning about the Beas and Sutlej rivers’ Indian dams, as they are nearing their capacity. If these dams continue to fill up, there is a risk of increased water being released into Pakistan.
The Flood Forecasting Division (FFD) reports that River Indus at Taunsa and Guddu, as well as River Sutlej at Sulemanki, have reached medium flood levels. Meanwhile, Rivers Kabul, Chenab, Indus, and Ravi are presently experiencing low flood levels in multiple areas. There is a likelihood of flash flooding in the hill torrents of DG Khan. An alert has been issued for an impending high flood level in the next 24 hours for River Indus at Guddu. River Kabul is currently at a medium flood level in Nowshera, while River Jhelum is at a low flood level in Mangla, but with a potential sharp increase up to medium flood level.
As a precautionary measure, the spillways of Islamabad’s Rawal Dam were opened when the water level reached 1749.65 feet. This step was taken in response to the potential risk of a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) caused by the overflow in rivers and ravines of Gilgit Baltistan, as well as the ongoing heavy rain session and glacial melting in the region.
River Floods
In the Balloki area, the Ravi River experienced low-level flooding, with 58,830 cusecs inflow and 42,030 cusecs outflow recorded at Balloki Headwater. On Thursday, officials reported that at least 50 villages in Pakistan’s Punjab province were inundated, leading to the displacement of hundreds of people, as the Chenab River burst its banks. an official at the Chiniot Flood Control Room, attributed the rising water levels to the seasonal rains.Additionally, the river levels were impacted by India’s decision to open sluice gates, releasing accumulated water into the Indus tributary. Earlier this month, authorities had already evacuated over 14,000 people from villages in other parts of the province. Meanwhile, at Pakpattan, the banks of River Sutlej burst, leading to the flooding of hundreds of surrounding villages and displacing the local population on Friday. The floodwaters have also caused severe harm to standing crops, submerging hundreds of acres of agricultural land.
Balochistan Emergency Declared
The northern, central, and eastern districts of Balochistan province have been experiencing persistent heavy downpours. In response to the current disastrous situation, the Balochistan provincial administration released emergency relief funds amounting to Rs150 million ($523,743) on Friday. The finance department stated that this allocation is intended to support timely relief and rescue operations in all 36 districts of Balochistan..
Surface Communication Disrupted
According to a statement on July 29 from Balochistan’s Provincial Disaster Management Authority on Saturday, major roads in the province, including the highway connecting it to Sindh, remained closed due to heavy rains and floods. The national highway linking Balochistan with Sindh and Punjab had been closed once again on Friday due to the ongoing adverse weather conditions. On July 27, flash floods caused road and bridge washouts in upper and central parts of the country. This led to the severing of Balochistan’s road links with Punjab and Sindh. In KP, the main GT Road was also swept away by floodwater in some regions resulting in the closure of the highway to Peshawar.
Earlier in the week, heavy downpours caused extreme flooding and a landslide on the Karakoram Highway (KKH). Consequently, sections of the critical passage were blocked which severely hampered travel conditions. Landslides near Khunjerab Zero Point disrupted surface communication with China. Hundreds of people were trapped on inundated roads while efforts to restore the artery were unsuccessful. The saturated ground from previous rains poses a potential threat of more mudslides and flooding as another spell of heavy rains is expected to strike again on July 31.
Story updated on july 23 as 2023 monsoon season continues in Pakistan
Third Monsoon Spell
The latest monsoon spell hit several cities of Punjab on Saturday. Lahore received up to 200 mm rainfall bringing the city to a standstill, causing massive traffic jams and electricity outages. Numerous flights were also delayed as Allama Iqbal International Airport runways were submerged in rainwater. These torrential rains claimed 8 lives in Punjab. Furthermore road communication between Punjab and Balochistan have been disrupted due to heavy landslides on the highway. Several regions in south Punjab have been deadly devastated by flood waters from river Sutlej. In the past 24 hours the water levels have risen by 4 feet.
According to a report by the Flood Risk Assessment Unit (FRAU) of the Irrigation Department, medium to high flood is expected in Rivers Chenab & Jhelum (upstream Mangla) along with associated Nullahs of Rivers Ravi & Chenab during next 48-hours.
The Met office also issued an alert on Friday warning that due to continuous rains, water levels in Indian dams have swollen dangerously high. As a result, dams on Beas, Sutlej and Ravi rivers have reached their maximum capacity. Water in Indian dams flowing into Pakistani rivers have started to overflow, threatening to burst to dangerous levels due to which flood alerts have been issued.
According to the Flood Forecast Division of Pakistan Meteorological Department , the monsoon activity over the country is likely to intensify in the next 48 hours. Its 21 July press release stated that monsoon currents are continuously penetrating in the country from Bay of Bengal. These currents will cause heavy rainfall from 22nd to 26th July . These rains can cause urban flooding in low lying areas of Punjab and also trigger landslides in the vulnerable areas of northern Pakistan. Furthermore they can also generate flash flooding in KPK and Balochistan.
Devastating Flash Floods in Chitral
Flash floods occurred in the district of Upper Chitral in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa for a second consecutive day. A stretch of the Chitral-Booni Road was washed away, cutting off access to affected areas. At least eight more houses and four commercial properties were damaged by the overflowing river. Earlier on July 21 the Yarkhon River swelled up due to glacial and snow melting, flooding the upper parts of Chitral . At least 18 houses collapsed while the glacial flood destroyed standing crops spread across hundreds of acres. Hundreds of residents in low-lying areas were forced to flee their homes and belongings and find refuge elsewhere.
Similarly in Bahawalnagar District, River Sutlej flooded the surrounding regions breaking dozens of levees displacing hundreds of people. In the Munchanabad region alone, more than 44 villages were destroyed. The flood situation at River Sutlej is still critical as the water level is continuously rising. Additionally another spell of monsoon rains started in the South Punjab region causing rural flooding. Several cities suffered prolonged electricity breakdown. Bahawalpur city received 50 mm of rainfall. The River Sindh also swelled up on July 21, destroying standing crops in the region of Jumman Shah. People have been forced to flee the region and hundreds of livestock are at risk.
Second Monsoon Spell
On July 19, heavy rains lashed Islamabad & Rawalpindi and Lahore, resulting in 19 deaths due to wall collapse and electrocution incidents. Rawalpindi received nearly 200 millimeters of rain, as recorded by the Pakistan Meteorological Department.
India Releases Flood Water during the Second Spell
On July 12 India released flood water in the River Sutlej, consequently flooding dozens of villages. As a result hundreds of hectares of agricultural land was destroyed, badly damaging the crops. On July 19 again India released flood water in the River Sutlej. This resulted in up to 7000 cusecs of water recorded at Sutlej Bridge.
First Monsoon Spell:
The first monsoon spell left death and devastation in its wake, with floods, landslides and faulty infrastructure collapse, claiming the lives of at least 86 people. Moreover, 151 people were reportedly injured.
Original Story
First Monsoon Rains of 2023
The city of Lahore in Pakistan experienced the onset of the monsoon season on July 5th, accompanied by a prolonged and intense downpour lasting for 10 hours. The relentless rainfall measured a remarkable 291mm, shattering a record that had stood for three decades. Tragically, this extreme weather event claimed the lives of seven individuals. Regrettably, this is only the initial phase of a projected five-day period of monsoon rains forecasted for Pakistan. Following the extensive damage caused by floods because of climate change in 2022, the country is likely to face yet another wave of catastrophic flooding this year.
Based on the information provided by the Water and Sanitation Agency (WASA), Lahore experienced a significant rainfall of 291mm on the initial day of the ongoing monsoon period. This torrential downpour resulted in widespread flooding across many areas of the city, causing severe disruptions to transportation, particularly for motorists. As a consequence, over 100 feeders operated by the Lahore Electric Supply Company (Lesco) tripped, leading to power outages in numerous localities.
Earlier this week the Pakistan Meteorological Department had issued a notice predicting the commencement of the monsoon season. The notice included warnings of urban flooding and landslides.
According to Associated Press of Pakistan (APP) medium to high level flood is likely in ravines of Rivers Chenab and Ravi.
Pakistan Floods in 2022
Wednesday’s relentless rainfall serves as a grim indication of the potential start to another calamitous year for the nation, which is already grappling with the difficulties posed by climate change and other pressing issues. In the previous year, devastating floods broke records and claimed the lives of over 1,700 individuals. This catastrophic event resulted in the displacement of more than 30 million people throughout the country, a figure equivalent to nearly half the population of the United Kingdom. Furthermore, approximately one-third of the nation’s territory was submerged under floodwaters.
Pakistan Floods and Climate Change
According to the UNDP, Pakistan, despite contributing less than 1 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, ranks among the top 10 countries most affected by extreme weather events. The per capita CO2 emissions in Pakistan stand at 1.06 tonnes per person, significantly lower than figures observed in the United States (14.24 tonnes), China (7.41 tonnes), and the EU (5.84 tonnes). The catastrophic floods witnessed last year were not solely the outcome of unprecedented monsoon rains and atmospheric rivers. Climate change and the overall warming of the planet further exacerbated the disaster through glacial melting that led to unprecedented floods in Pakistan.
Glacial Melting
Pakistan has more than 7,200 glaciers, having more glacial ice than any other country not including the polar regions. According to UNDP, rapid glacial melting in Pakistan’s northern mountain ranges has led to the formation of 3,044 glacial lakes in Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). Among these lakes, 33 are high-risk for hazardous glacial lake outburst flooding (GLOF). GLOF events can cause the sudden release of massive amounts of water and debris, posing a significant threat to the lives, property, and livelihoods of remote and impoverished mountain communities. Prior to the monsoons, Pakistan faced a record high heatwave in 2022. As a result, Pakistan witnessed at least 16 GLOFs. One of the most devastating GLOF was because of the melting of the Shisper Glacier at Hassanabad Village.
Studies Attribute Pakistan Floods to Climate Change
A research article ‘The Pakistan Flood of August 2022: Causes and Implications’ (available here) was published in Earth’s Future, a Gold Open Access journal. It concluded that, “The extent of flood damage in 2022 highlights the need for structural and non-structural flood control measures, both of which requires a significant investment (Caretta et al., 2022; Codo & Rico-Ramirez, 2018; Silvestro et al., 2019; Sukla, 2020). Long-term adaptation measures require adequate funding and support from developed countries that primarily contribute to global emissions. Pakistan contributes less than one per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions (Aziz, 2022; Bhutto, 2022), so a concerted effort by the developed countries is crucial in building resilience in low-emission countries with high climate exposure.”
Following the disastrous floods scientists from Pakistan, India, the Netherlands, France, Denmark, South Africa, New Zealand, the US and the UK used published, peer-reviewed methods to perform an event attribution study. The final report of the World Weather Attribution is available here. According to their findings human-induced climate change caused the excessive rainfall resulting in Pakistan floods. The report concluded the findings stating, “Both current conditions and the potential further increase in extreme peaks in rainfall over Pakistan in light of human-caused climate change, suggest that there is an urgent need to reduce vulnerability to extreme weather in Pakistan.”
Economic Crisis Caused by the Floods
According to the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) released by Pakistan’s Bureau of Statistics the floods caused the year-on-year price of essential consumer items up by 44.58%. Agriculture plays a vital role in Pakistan’s economy and it employs almost 25% people in Pakistan.
Pakistan Floods and Climate Change Threaten Food Security
The Pakistan floods as a result of climate change in 2022 resulted in a dire food crisis, severely impacting Pakistan’s agricultural sector. Specifically, in the province of Sindh alone, a staggering 1.9 million tons of rice production, accounting for an 80% loss, occurred. According to the International Rescue Committee, the floods devastated 65 percent of the nation’s primary food crops, exacerbating the already challenging situation.
According to an update in March by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) available here, the massive flash floods in Pakistan destroyed 1.7 million hectares of agrarian land and cost 800,000 in livestock. Furthermore around 14.6 million people are in need of food security and agricultural assistance.
According to the Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) by the World Bank, “The assessment estimates total damages to exceed USD 14.9 billion, and total economic losses to reach about USD 15.2 billion. Estimated needs for rehabilitation and reconstruction in a resilient way are at least USD 16.3 billion, not including much needed new investments beyond the affected assets, to support Pakistan’s adaptation to climate change and overall resilience of the country to future climate shocks. Housing; Agriculture and Livestock; and Transport and Communications sectors suffered the most significant damage, at USD 5.6 billion, USD 3.7 billion, and USD 3.3 billion, respectively. Sindh is the worst affected province with close to 70 percent of total damages and losses, followed by Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Punjab.”
Geneva Conference 2023
Following the devastating floods The International Conference on Climate Resilient Pakistan took place on 9 January 2023. Commonly called the Geneva Conference, the Government of Pakistan and the United Nations jointly hosted it. International donors including World Bank and Islamic Development Bank among others pledged almost $10bn to help Pakistan rebuild following the devastation caused by Pakistan floods as a consequence of severe climate crisis.
Of the total pledged amount of $9.7 billion, a significant portion of over $8 billion consists of project loans spread over the course of the next three years. However, the release of these pledges was heavily contingent on Pakistan’s ongoing IMF program and its continuity.
Pledged Amounts Linked with IMF – Why?
The connection between these pledged amounts and Pakistan’s pre-existing financial agreements with the IMF remains a perplexing mystery. These pledges were in response to an urgent humanitarian crisis.
It raises questions as to why they were tied to any other pre-existing deal Pakistan had with the IMF. This interlinking has resulted in hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons (IDPs). These IDPs are still awaiting assistance, as Pakistan finds itself on the verge of yet another impending flood season. Timely arrival of the necessary aid could have potentially averted numerous disasters. Furthermore, there were concerns following the Geneva Conference regarding the absence of climate justice. Especially considering Pakistan’s contribution of less than 1% towards global climate change. It remains unclear why additional loans disguised as pledges were announced with conditionality of dependence on IMF. Specially during a time when the country is already grappling with an economic crisis.
IMF has recently reached a staff level agreement with Pakistan of about $3 billion. The expectation now is that a portion of the pledged amount will reach the country as well.
Based on Wednesday’s rainfall, it appears that Pakistan is headed towards yet another year of severe and destructive floods. Considering the limited progress of rehabilitation over the past year, the damage is expected to exceed last year’s devastations. It is crucial to recognize that the floods in Pakistan are not merely a regional issue. Unless global efforts are made, the consequences are likely to surpass the severity of the previous year’s events.
